Every year, the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) come together to demonstrate their commitment and responsibility in the fight against climate change. They call this meeting the Conference of Parties. They did this for the 28th time this year. Therefore, this meeting is called COP28 for short. There are 198 parties in this meeting. The sum of 197 countries and the European Union makes 198 parties.
The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, ended on 13 December 2023.
Global Stocktake
The most important agenda item of the Conference was the Global Stocktake. The Global Stocktake was expected to be a critical turning point in efforts to combat climate change. The purpose of the assessment was to assess the state of our planet in detail and set a better course for the future. The assessment aimed to answer the questions “Where has progress been made collectively in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and where has it not?”.
Let us look at the three phases of the first global stocktake:
Information gathering and preparation
Technical evaluation phase
Phase of political evaluation of the outputs of the technical assessment (COP28 meeting)
Global stocktake is conducted every five years. For the first time, this stocktake was finalised at COP28. The technical report, which took years to prepare, points to the growing gap between the needs of developing countries and the support provided and mobilised for them, and calls for financial flows for climate action and building climate resilience.
The decisions taken on top of all these technical assessments were as follows:
- The Conference decided to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund. The decision to establish this fund was taken at COP27 in 2022. The fund collected was at the level of a very small proportion of what was needed.
- The first global assessment of climate action within the framework of the Paris Agreement was finalised at this COP meeting. The evaluation decision text called for “transition away from fossil fuels”. However, “phasing out fossil fuels” was not decided.
The Global Stocktake decision text calls on the parties to do the following:
- Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030,
- Accelerate efforts to reduce unabated (not using carbon capture technology) coal power,
- Moving away from fossil fuels in a fair and equitable way in energy systems,
- Accelerate the use of zero and low emission technologies: Renewable, nuclear, carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen production,
- To drastically reduce emissions other than carbon dioxide, especially methane emissions, by 2030,
- Reducing emissions from road transport, rapid transition to zero and low emission vehicles,
- Exit from inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.
The weak tone of the decision text attracts attention. We can say that the text of the resolution, which is not binding, only calls for “divestment” from fossil fuels.
What COP28 Decisions Mean for Fossil Fuels
Throughout the conference, major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia fought to eliminate “fossil fuel phase-out” options from the drafts of the decision text. Developing economies, on the other hand, resisted a “fossil fuel phase-out” decision that could be expected of them without adequate financial support.
In the end, 100 out of 195 countries wanted to phase out fossil fuels and lost. According to some, this is not a “win” or a “loss”, but a move forward. In fact, we can say that the oil countries decided and dictated.
Reading between the lines, this decision tells oil countries to keep doing what they are doing. From the selection of the United Arab Emirates to host COP28 to the appointment of Sultan El Jaber, the head of the national oil company, as the conference chairman, many things had already been dictated.
Look who has what plans:
- COP28 president Jaber’s company ADNOC plans to increase its production capacity by at least 10 per cent by 2027 and natural gas production by 259 per cent by 2028. An investment of 150 billion dollars in the national oil company ADNOC!
- The USA, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK are also planning fossil fuel expansion. These five countries are responsible for 51 per cent of all new oil and gas extraction planned until 2050. When we look at the promises made at COP28, we see that by 2034 these countries should completely give up oil and gas production. Do you think this will happen?
- On the very last day of the COP28 meeting, Norway’s industrial energy organisation Offshore Norway announced that the country’s oil and gas investments will increase by 9% next year, with an investment of 22 billion dollars. Norway increases its drilling licences by 50% every year.
- On a global scale, there is talk of a cash flow of 2.5-4.6 trillion dollars in the hydrocarbon business between 2023-2030. We understand that the capital needed for renewable energy is actually not a major problem. Investment in low-carbon fuels and technologies is a tiny fraction of hydrocarbon capital. Tripling the renewable energy effort is not even a drop in the bucket for the fossil fuel industry. The question is, will investment in renewable energy reduce fossil fuel consumption?
- In its 2023 World Oil Outlook report, OPEC says that global demand will increase by 6 million barrels per day to 116 million barrels in 2045. Doesn’t this statement alone express many things?
After COP28
Looking at the decision taken at COP28, I find it difficult to understand: “How will this work in practice? How will we move away from fossil fuels? If fossil fuels are to be phased out, why are investments still being made in oil & gas infrastructure?”
In fact, it’s a conflict of interest: those who should switch to renewable energy are the ones who make money by not doing so. Instead, they are trying to keep their coal, gas and oil infrastructure and business models as viable as possible. They use smokescreen tactics to hype the role of hydrogen and carbon capture technologies.
According to both the United Nations and the International Energy Agency, new oil and gas projects are not compatible with the 1.5°C warming target. The world’s largest fossil fuel companies – BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Total Energies – are preparing to spend $15 million every hour until 2030 to produce more oil and gas. They plan to spend 3.1 trillion dollars by 2050.
Considering the known reserves as well as the possible oil and gas reserves to be discovered, the planned expenditures are estimated to reach 3.8 trillion dollars. About half of this will be dedicated to new oil and gas extraction projects. The combustion of the oil and gas extracted by these five companies will release 47 billion tonnes of oil by 2050. This is equivalent to about one-eighth of the carbon budget.
The text of the resolution contains a number of loopholes… Developing countries still need hundreds of billions of dollars in finance. to move away from coal, oil and gas. Developed countries and oil producers will not be forced to move as fast as climate science warns.
The US seems to have got off lightly at this COP. The US made a pledge of only 20 million dollars for the poor world, maintaining its position as the world’s largest oil and gas producer. China will continue to expand its coal production. but also renewable energy production. India’s coal industry has nothing to fear.
Even such a weak text was opposed by the world’s oil-producing countries. Saudi Arabia objected to the reference to fossil fuels; it insisted on a reference to carbon capture and storage technologies. Russia has continued to work behind closed doors to disrupt developments and will do more of this next year in Baku, Azerbaijan.
They are trying to dictate that the agreement reached at COP28, which concluded 24 hours later than planned, is a “significant development”. However, we sadly come to the conclusion that we have witnessed yet another meeting where non-binding decisions were taken, which did not touch the water. However, hope and struggle will not be pushed away. We will continue to demand climate action at all levels and endeavour to do our work in the most environmentally-friendly way.